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 2012 JAPAN NATIONALS

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hsuhs
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PostSubject: Re: 2012 JAPAN NATIONALS   Sat Dec 29, 2012 11:39 pm

Twind, I'm joining ostile and ilica in their request for the subs, but I, too, wish you take all the time you need, first -- to fully recover from the flu and to take care of your family I love you We can wait.
And thank you for all your previous work flower You make watching the videos so much more fun!

It's great you are going to SOI cheers

Meanwhile, I put JN men scores through a stats software and found a couple of interesting things.
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PostSubject: Re: 2012 JAPAN NATIONALS   Sun Dec 30, 2012 10:22 am

What did you find hsuhs?
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PostSubject: Re: 2012 JAPAN NATIONALS   Mon Dec 31, 2012 1:34 am

Here's what I found:

The sample of 24 Japan Nationals male skaters is small, (and it's always better for the results generalizability / reliability to have as much data as possible):

I removed the scores of the last 3 short program finishers, because they didn't make it to the free skate. My calculations are thus based on 24 skaters for both SP and FS. For now, I concentrated on Program Component Scores only.

The original scores are posted here:
sp: http://www.jsfresults.com/National/2012-2013/fs_e/national/data0103.htm
fs: http://www.jsfresults.com/National/2012-2013/fs_e/national/data0105.htm

1. First, just to give a general idea of the PCS scores in both programs, I posted descriptives here:

Descriptives SP: http://shot.qip.ru/00bqRg-4RnQpOYuZ/
Descriptives FS: http://shot.qip.ru/00bqRg-1RnQpOYv0/

There you can see mean scores for each program component, for the entire group of 24 skaters. You can see, for instance, that SS Mean score in short program in this group of skaters is 6.47, with the lowest SS score being 4.80 and the highest SS score 8.90. Etc etc

2. Here's a mean plot per component in short program and free skate: http://shot.qip.ru/00bqRg-4RnQpOYv1/

If you look at each skater's scores, you'll see that TR score is almost always the lowest of the 5 Components. (I don't know if the same is necessarily true for other national / ISU championships).

Yet, the differences between 5 mean Component scores are not significant, even if they look so impressive in the plot. There's no one identifiable component that is solely responsible for a given skater's Program component score.

3. Just a reminder reg how they arrive at PCS for each skater:
in SP: SS+TR+PE+CH+IN=PCS (for instance: 8.45+8.10+ 8.35+8.35+8.30=PCS 41.55 (Takahiko's PCS)
in FS: Mean PCS Score X 10 = Skater's PCS Score, i.e. SS+TR+PE+CH+IN/5 X 10=PCS (for instance: 9.10+8.70+8.95+9.10+9.00/5 x 10=PSC 89.70 (Yuzuru's PCS score in free skate)

When we look at how individual skaters' scores for each program component relate to the total pool of individual program component scores, we see the following (ckeck the (non-)significance cell in the tables above the plots):

SS: http://shot.qip.ru/00bqRg-1RnQpOYv3/
TR: http://shot.qip.ru/00bqRg-3RnQpOYv5/
PE: http://shot.qip.ru/00bqRg-3RnQpOYv6/
CH: http://shot.qip.ru/00bqRg-4RnQpOYv4/
IN: http://shot.qip.ru/00bqRg-1RnQpOYv2/

Which, according to my interpretation, means for the short program:

There's difference in PCS scores for skaters with different short program Skating Skills scores
There's difference in PCS scores for skaters with different short program Transition scores
There's difference in PCS scores for skaters with different short program Performance / Execution scores
There's difference in PCS scores for skaters with different short program Choreography / Composition scores
There's difference in PCS scores for skaters with different short program Interpretation scores

A skater with a low SS (or TR, PE, CH, IN) score is also scoring lower PCS for his short program (which makes sense since we know the judges tend to keep all 5 component scores per skater close to each other).

Free program findings are somewhat different. The findings for free skate SS, TR and IN are similar to those in SP:

There's difference in PCS scores for skaters with different free skate Skating Skills scores
There's difference in PCS scores for skaters with different free skate Transition scores
There's difference in PCS scores for skaters with different free skate Interpretation scores

BUT:

There's little or no difference in PCS scores for skaters with different free skate Performance / Execution scores
PE: http://shot.qip.ru/00bqRg-2RnQpOYv7/

There's little or no difference in PCS scores for skaters with different free skate Choreography / Composition scores
CH: http://shot.qip.ru/00bqRg-3RnQpOYv8/

The differences in PE and CH in free skate don't translate into differences in fs program component scores.

Which may mean that in JN men FS, PE and CH scores were possibly treated / scored differently than the other 3 Components

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PCS criteria are posted here: http://www.usfsa.org/content/JS08A-Programcompexplan.pdf

That's all for now, folks cheers
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Shyla
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PostSubject: Re: 2012 JAPAN NATIONALS   Mon Dec 31, 2012 7:25 pm

Fascinating, thank you hsuhs.
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PostSubject: Re: 2012 JAPAN NATIONALS   Tue Jan 01, 2013 3:45 am

Hsuhs, you have very... complicated hobby. Very Happy It's still New Years Eve here, so I don't feel in form enough to analyze this rabbit , but it sounds interesting.

Morozombie at the end of the year ~~ http://morozombie.blogspot.com/2012/12/a-last-postof-2012.html#more

Yes!!! cheers Dai's earth-shattering performance has finally convinced him/her! albino
...a perfect way to end the year...

Happy New Year everybody!!! sunny sunny sunny
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PostSubject: Re: 2012 JAPAN NATIONALS   Wed Jan 02, 2013 3:07 am

Shyla wrote:
Fascinating, thank you hsuhs.
Thank you, Shyla Very Happy I was afraid it'd read like sleep-inducing & nonsense, or both.

ilica wrote:
Hsuhs, you have very... complicated hobby. Very Happy It's still New Years Eve here, so I don't feel in form enough to analyze this rabbit , but it sounds interesting.

Thank you, ilica sunny I'm hoping someone with a similar hobby chimes in to suggest a better way of understanding / analyzing the PCS.

ilica wrote:
Morozombie at the end of the year ~~ http://morozombie.blogspot.com/2012/12/a-last-postof-2012.html#more

Yes!!! cheers Dai's earth-shattering performance has finally convinced him/her! albino
...a perfect way to end the year...

Happy New Year everybody!!! sunny sunny sunny
Ah another lovely post from Morozombie, thank you for the link cheers
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PostSubject: Re: 2012 JAPAN NATIONALS   Wed Jan 02, 2013 6:08 am

FS no commentary ver.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1TwjZhIwac

I am still overwhelmed by the performance.

Thank you Shae-lynne and Thank you Technical caller at nationals~!
(I think the TC helped Daisuke perform the FS at nationals.)


And Happy New Year everybody~!
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PostSubject: Re: 2012 JAPAN NATIONALS   Wed Jan 02, 2013 6:45 am

Special Guest - Stephane Lambiel, MOI 2012 ~~ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQEHQZ3oZS0

fosse wrote:
Thank you Technical caller at nationals~!
(I think the TC helped Daisuke perform the FS at nationals.)

You think? I am still closer to kill, than to thank, him/her. Twisted Evil
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PostSubject: Re: 2012 JAPAN NATIONALS   Wed Jan 02, 2013 8:11 am

Quote :
You think? I am still closer to kill, than to thank, him/her.

Laughing Me, too.

But I guessed what Daisuke most needed was motivation after winning long waited GPF title, the TC gave him the motivation after SP. It was funny, was't it? Laughing

The performance and the audience & skating fans & media's reations said everything.

And Why judges didn't give Daisuke PCS100 Question
Yes, 96 points were huge but compared others..umm..his pcs under mark, either. Shocked
at least they gave him above 99points. Evil or Very Mad
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PostSubject: Re: 2012 JAPAN NATIONALS   Wed Jan 02, 2013 11:14 am

You may be right, fosse, with a higher SP score, Dai might not have been motivated enough.
I still cannot believe what he delivered, two quads (thank you TC Rolling Eyes ), two 3As, 3+3... Shocked

fosse wrote:
And Why judges didn't give Daisuke PCS100 Question
Don't be too greedy. Laughing Can you imagine the screams affraid "even Patrick Chan doesn't have 10s in SS", "and what about Transitions"? Razz
But 99 would be nice Very Happy
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PostSubject: Re: 2012 JAPAN NATIONALS   Fri Jan 04, 2013 3:07 pm

hsuhs wrote:
The differences in PE and CH in free skate don't translate into differences in fs program component scores.

Which may mean that in JN men FS, PE and CH scores were possibly treated / scored differently than the other 3 Components
So, basically you are saying they lowballed PE and CH, the criteria which our Dai is good at, and which the audience appreciate the most. geek
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PostSubject: Re: 2012 JAPAN NATIONALS   Fri Jan 04, 2013 10:46 pm

ilica wrote:
Special Guest - Stephane Lambiel, MOI 2012 ~~ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQEHQZ3oZS0

Thank you ilica. Beautifully skated program. Did you notice he did only one jump. The thing is with Stephane
he does not need a lot of jumps in his programs because his skating, artistry and choreography is first rate.
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PostSubject: Re: 2012 JAPAN NATIONALS   Fri Jan 04, 2013 11:09 pm

fosse wrote:
FS no commentary ver.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1TwjZhIwac

I am still overwhelmed by the performance.

Thank you Shae-lynne and Thank you Technical caller at nationals~!
(I think the TC helped Daisuke perform the FS at nationals.)


And Happy New Year everybody~!

Thank you Fosse. I agree about Dai's performance I have watched it so many times now and it is nice to have a version with no commentary. Very Happy Yay!
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PostSubject: Re: 2012 JAPAN NATIONALS   Sat Jan 05, 2013 1:55 am

let`s talk wrote:
So, basically you are saying they lowballed PE and CH, the criteria which our Dai is good at, and which the audience appreciate the most. geek
Hard to tell what exactly happened there.
Daisuke had the highest (of the entire group) PE and CH marks, those definitely contributed to his top PCSscore.

But if we look at some other skaters scores:
http://www.jsfresults.com/National/2012-2013/fs_e/national/data0105.htm

we see, for instance, that:

Oda and Mura had exact same PCS, while Mura's PE and CH marks (8.45 and 8.40) came out higher than Oda's (PE 8.30 and CH 8.35). Kawahara scored an overall higher, than Hattori's, PCS, with a lower, than Hattori, CH score. Nakamura's PE score (7.80) is higher than Machida's (7.65), but his PCS isn't. Etc etc.

The same kind of 'inconsistency' is present in the scoring of the other 3 components as well, yet they end up making a difference in the overall PCScores, while PE and CH do not.

(My findings for non-factored (i.e. not multiplied by 2) FS PCS are the same as for the factored ones I posted earlier).

It can be argued that someone with weak skating skills can still have a beautiful complex choreo, or someone who lacks transitions, is able to produce a strong performance. All that seems possible. But how come there are no issues with the SP scores? The judges are the same in both programs.

Another possible argument might be that PE and CH are rather 'vague' components. But so is IN.

So I don't know what to make out of this.
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PostSubject: Re: 2012 JAPAN NATIONALS   Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:57 pm

hsuhs wrote:
The differences in PE and CH in free skate don't translate into differences in fs program component scores.

Which may mean that in JN men FS, PE and CH scores were possibly treated / scored differently than the other 3 Components

Maybe this means that only PE and CH were actually judged?
The rest of the components are somehow fixed, "this skater is a 7.5 points SS skater, he has 7.2 worthy TR, and his IN is on 7.6 level (since PChan has become the best "interpretor" it's no longer easy to say what "Interpretation" means, so better to be careful Wink )
The only components the judges felt free to evaluate were those two, "I liked this Choreography, and I loved this Performance".
But because they were only a little anomalies in the fixed patterns, they didn't effect the total PCS score.
SS, TR, IN on the other hand, as parts of the pattern, were more reflected in total score.

The anomaly didn't occur in the Short Program because usually it is scored more cautiously. The judges don't let their impressions take over the fixed opinions.

That's my interpretation. Smile I'm sure no one can see much sense in it. Laughing

Shyla wrote:
Beautifully skated program. Did you notice he did only one jump. The thing is with Stephane
he does not need a lot of jumps in his programs because his skating, artistry and choreography is first rate.

So true!
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PostSubject: Re: 2012 JAPAN NATIONALS   Sun Jan 06, 2013 1:28 am

ilica wrote:
Maybe this means that only PE and CH were actually judged?
The rest of the components are somehow fixed, "this skater is a 7.5 points SS skater, he has 7.2 worthy TR, and his IN is on 7.6 level (since PChan has become the best "interpretor" it's no longer easy to say what "Interpretation" means, so better to be careful Wink )
The only components the judges felt free to evaluate were those two, "I liked this Choreography, and I loved this Performance".
But because they were only a little anomalies in the fixed patterns, they didn't effect the total PCS score.
SS, TR, IN on the other hand, as parts of the pattern, were more reflected in total score.

The anomaly didn't occur in the Short Program because usually it is scored more cautiously. The judges don't let their impressions take over the fixed opinions.

That's my interpretation. Smile I'm sure no one can see much sense in it. Laughing
I think I do, ilica. You mean, the 5 components are divided in 2 groups. The first group is used to 'place' the skaters, the second one is used to exercise the freedom of expression.
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